COP29 is next week, and world leaders will converge in Azerbaijan. However, just ahead of them is the return of Donald Trump to the White House, which has let loose alarm bells from climate advocates worldwide. There was never much doubt about Trump’s skepticism over climate action. Returns to fossil fuels and dismissal of green energy could emerge as one of the biggest challenges in global efforts to decrease emissions and support climate-vulnerable nations. Experts warn of possible short-term undermining but are less sure about longer-term impact.

Trump has previously referred to renewable energy programs as a “scam” and will likely reinstate policies from his first term, including forcing egregious oil and gas development and possibly pulling the United States out of the Paris Agreement. This time around, though, if Trump pulls out of the treaty, such an exit could occur within one year, meaning he would have another year to accomplish his agenda unfettered by international scrutiny. This could, in turn, affect the state of bargaining at COP29 since Biden’s new administration has no power to enter into legally binding commitments on behalf of the incumbent Trump administration.

“A Dead Duck” Role for the US at COP29

With the US powerless to commit long-term, certain observers argue that countries like China may only be willing to commit to additional climate funding with US leadership. In return, the U.S. has long been a strong advocate of forcing larger developing economies to commit to contributing to climate funds; Trump’s probable exit from climate agreements would relieve such pressures on countries like China.

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Domestic Push for Fossil Fuels and Environmental Rollbacks

Domestically, the Trump administration is likely to lift environmental protections, increase oil and gas production, and apply tariffs on electric vehicles and solar panels from China. Analysts believe the future would even take the country back to the “drill baby drill” approach of expanded offshore drilling, fracking, and accelerated pipeline development toward eliminating US energy costs.

These market jitters reflect those fears: wind turbine manufacturers have already seen stock drops amid speculation that US offshore wind projects may face cancellation. But some analysts point out that Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act actually pours billions into clean energy, and that Republican districts are huge beneficiaries, so just within his party, Trump’s stance might be looked at as a question. 

Renewable Energy Averts Electrocution Ending up Dumped

Climate change leaders sound hopeful that the US shift towards clean energy will continue to gain more mileage than might, in the short term, pose a brake on this trend. Global investment in renewable energy has surpassed that in fossil fuels, and according to former UN Climate Chief Christiana Figueres, new challenges such as those talked about by President Trump will not bring down this curve.

Figueres said the outcome of this election will be seen as a catastrophic step backwards for international climate action, but it cannot and will not halt the irreversible changes already underway in efforts to decarbonize the economy and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

It is within this context that people will discover after Trump assumes office whether US climate policy will continue along lines convergent with international efforts or complicate an urgent fight against the effects of global warming.