Nov 5 —As vote results in the US presidential election began pouring in on Tuesday night, the fight between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remained tight. A clear winner will not emerge until Wednesday or later in the week. Early exit polls and projections suggest the race will be one of the closest in recent memory, with both candidates securing critical victories in states that have long been battlegrounds.

Early Trends in Key States

As the evening wore on, Harris and Trump claimed victories in the early states projected to lean in their favor. Trump initially moved forward with the lead in electoral votes after the Associated Press and Edison Research reported that he had won the battleground state of North Carolina. Decision Desk HQ also declared Georgia for Trump along with North Carolina; Edison Research had yet to call any of these or the other central swing states, which could be decisive.(More)

While it’s too early to call who might emerge as a clear favorite, trends that will likely play their part in determining the results are unfolding. By primary voter demographics, Trump has improved since 2020, especially among male voters of color and those under 45. Early exit poll data showed that Trump was running significantly better than before, bucking Harris’s attempts at flipping women’s votes with steady support in the suburbs.

Changing Demographics Voters of Color

One of the notable trends from exit polls about the election is that Trump did better on voters of color. His campaign had invested heavily in outreach to Black and Latino voters, and early returns hinted at those paying dividends. North Carolina exit polls reported that Trump had increased his share of the Black vote to 12%, more than double the 5% he got in the 2020 election. But even more notably, Black men were supporting Trump 20%. He made significant strides among Latino voters, specifically Latino men, whose vote for him surged 18 points from four years prior.

However, such gains were offset by erosion in some of Trump’s critical battleground states among white voters. North Carolina exit polls revealed a minor loss in support among whites, and in Pennsylvania, support among white voters declined three percentage points from 2020.

The Gender Gap and Women Voters

The gender gap, of course, was again a key factor in this election. Harris has said she will try to build on that support among female voters, particularly around issues like abortion rights. But exit polls showed Trump was still holding significant numbers of white women voters: in Pennsylvania and Georgia, he held steady among white women, exactly as he had in 2020. Conversely, North Carolina felt some defection among white women to Trump, where his numbers were eight points lower compared with four years ago.

While Harris received good support from Black women, who voted overwhelmingly for the Democratic ticket, she lost a few percentage points compared to Biden’s 2020 performance when he won 57% of the female vote. Early data shows Harris received only 54% of women’s support.

Age and Generational Divides

Age was the most dominant factor in the early election trends. The national exit poll had Trump by a slim margin among men under 45 years of age and kept his momentum among seniors. States like Michigan and Wisconsin reported that Trump has gained voters under 45. His vote support increased five points in the two states compared to the 2020 elections. In Nevada, it was a six-point gain for Trump.

However, Trump appeared to be falling back among older voters. In Wisconsin, for instance, his percentage of the vote among voters 65 and older fell by 11 points from 2020. In Michigan, Trump’s vote percentage among this age group had dropped by six points. In 2020, Trump had barely edged out Harris in the 65-and-over vote, but in the 2024 exit polls, Harris and Trump were roughly tied within this age group.

Conclusion: A Long Night Ahead

As night comes, the election cannot yet be called; however, voters have been making statements throughout the night regarding key demographics and battleground states for the candidates. Since exit polls give the clearest look into trends among the electorate, one has to wonder how accurate they could be. When these votes are finally tallied, all attention will continue to be focused on swing states and ultimate results that would break or make the day in such highly contested elections.