Georgia, at the crossroads between Europe and Russia, which it has maintained relations with since Soviet times, is about to hold a critically important election. More than a domestic political competition, the election could define who Georgia is today and who it wants to be in the long run, given that an overwhelming number of its population favours closer ties to Europe – the outcome will dictate whether Georgia continues on its track toward European integration or reverses under Russian influence.

A drive towards European Integration

Georgia has supported European integration for a considerable period, goaded by a whim for political stability, economic growth, and adherence to democratic principles. Recently, there has been a period of closer EU-Georgia relations through cooperation in trade, visa liberalisation, and reform activities. Such actions have not only reaped economic fruit for Georgia but also raised hopes of future membership in the EU.

European integration is a way to a better life and security for most of its population and a way of casting off the shadow of the Russian influence that has weighed so heavily on Georgia. ‘For the younger generation, Europe is a model of democracy, human rights, and opportunity. However, this rapprochement with Europe has come at a cost, as it increased tensions with Russia  due to Geogia’s pro-European orientation.(More)

Russian Influence and the Forces of Resistance

Russia perceives Georgia as being within its sphere of influence, and the ambitions of Georgia to join the European family grew more robust in 2008 when the Russian forces occupied regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. ‘Russia would not like to see Georgia join the Europeans as it is perceived that NATO might influence their southern borders, which would limit Moscow’s influence on the region.

Often, the opposition parties in Georgia reflect this geopolitical wedge. Some support a third-way or pro-Russia stance, arguing that Georgia’s stability and security depend on “strategic balancing” between Russia and the West. Others insist on fully embracing European integration, rejecting Russia’s efforts to drive Georgian policy through economic coercion and control of media outlets.

Issues most relevant to Georgian voters

The electorate will have a choice not only among candidates but also ideologies. The most burning issues in the election are economic growth, corruption, and social reforms. According to the pro-European camp, stronger links with Europe mean more jobs and less corruption, while much-needed judicial reform is in order. On the other hand, the pro-Russian factions hold that European aspirations are dangerous and could exacerbate the existing tensions with Moscow. A fragmented outcome may imperil stability.

Younger, more pro-European voters will likely play a crucial role in the election. Still, the older population will most likely vote for stability and avoid risks, recalling the wars and economic crises during childhood. For this reason, the generational gap makes the election even more complicated: opposing candidates will try to win over both generations as well as they can.

Stakes for Georgia’s Future

Such an election would mean only one thing: exceptionally high stakes. ‘A European-oriented party would bring closer the final steps in Georgia’s march towards the EU, likely accelerating the economic and social reform processes. Conversely, a victory for the pro-Russian orientation would signify a reorientation of foreign policy in Tbilisi, with the Georgian nation turning further toward Moscow and away from its European integrational ambitions.’

Finally, the election is not merely a decision for Georgia alone but shows broader trends in the struggle between democratic aspiration and authoritarian influence in Eastern Europe. Its outcome will likely affect regional alliances and send a signal to countries caught between East and West.