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Threats of retaliatory actions from Israel in case Iran fired over 180 ballistic missiles towards it, most of which are said to have been intercepted by Israeli air defenses, has the United States hinting that a covert operation against Iranian military installations might be in its offing.
Probable is targeting key Iranian military installations in the form of missile-producing facilities. According to experts, that will be a proportionate response by Iran to this missile barrage. Strikes would probably be targeted at Iranian air defense and missile-launching facilities, especially because lately, the US claims that Iran has been supplying ballistic missiles to Russia, which both deny.
Experts say that this is the closest tactic to an “in-kind” response to Iran’s aggression as a military, targeting its missiles instead of letting it escalate into a whole conflict in the region.
Another most likely, though highly contentious, avenue would be the bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites. Though strikes against those sites may slow Iran’s nuclear ambitions, those may cause disastrous consequences and possibly impel Tehran to move forward with the development of atomic weapons. The US has warned against such a measure, as analysts insist that Iran’s nuclear infrastructure would make Tehran respond more severely.
This tactic reveals risks, as the Iranian claims of a nuclear peaceful program and earlier foreign findings from the IAEA and US intelligence that Iran’s atomic actions were almost halted after 2003.
Another proposal is to strike Iran’s oil infrastructure, which would, in turn, place economic pressure on Tehran. Such an action could potentially trigger a much larger fire because Iran will retaliate by hitting targets in neighboring Gulf states and destabilizing the oil price globally, thus affecting nearly all economies. Analysts further argue that the higher oil prices could have some political costs for the United States, particularly since this is approaching critical elections.
Although a military response may be inevitable, Israel will look into non-military options. These include potentially harsher economic sanctions against Iran and cyber warfare. The United States has already imposed strict sanctions on Iran, mainly cutting off U.S.-Iranian trade and freezing Iranian assets. More stringent measures are likely to keep pressure high but are less likely to be the chief response.
Another option would be the advanced cyber warfare capabilities referred to in the latest operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon by Israel. Cyberattacks could destroy Iranian infrastructure and military networks without a single immediate physical conflict, thus conveying a message without leading to broader escalation.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu looks to the consultations with US allies even as Israel contemplates its response, one which will carry military and diplomatic consequences. The current situation presents a scenario that balances the imperatives of national security with the larger context of regional stability, one that Israeli defense capabilities supplemented by US support are well-equipped to navigate.