The Japanese political landscape has dramatically shifted after the country’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its parliamentary majority in the just-concluded elections. The surprise result is a big blow to the newly appointed Prime Minister, whose term so far has been marked by the pursuit of both economic reform and robust regional security policies.

A Bumpy Ride for the New Prime Minister

‘The LDP’s loss of majority comes as the country’s new Prime Minister takes office. He has been saddled with the task of reviving Japan’s economy and trying to manage the rising tensions in the Asia-Pacific region; now, he faces this challenge without the unshakeable support of a majority in the Diet, the national legislature of Japan. This development raises several questions about his ability to lead effectively and enact the policy agenda he has called for.'(More)

The LDP retains most of the seats, but it has had to form a coalition with the Komeito Party, a political organisation underpinned by Buddhism and seen as more dovish on military issues. ‘This may cause problems for the Prime Minister’s security-focused policies and lead to internal infighting that compromises his desired outcomes for Japan.’

Economic Reform Under Pressure

Economic reform has been another key plank of the Prime Minister’s platform, focusing on Japan’s ageing population, rising national debt, and stagnant wage growth.’ However, economic reforms that require broad legislative support may have difficulty being driven through by his administration, which is weakened by a minority.

With the loss of the LDP majority, some much-needed yet unpopular reforms, such as increasing taxes and reducing spending, would be kept in abeyance or delayed. Moreover, even the smallest economic mishap will lead to dwindling public confidence in the government, which may be a complex platform on which the new leader proves his worth.

Security Concerns after the Fall of the Coalition

Japan’s national security has been experiencing some shifts, particularly to militarily assertive powers on its periphery like China and North Korea. So far, the Prime Minister has set forth policies strengthening the Self-Defense Forces of Japan and greater partnership among allied nations, such as with the United States. To get such legislation through Parliament, his stance may need to be tempered as reliance will be needed upon the Komeito’s cooperation.

Komeito’s pacifist position often conflicts with the LDP’s desire for a more muscular military, creating challenges in passing measures involving higher defence outlays or altered military procedures. The shift could probably lead to a more reticent security policy that could, in turn, affect Japan’s role in the region and its strategic alignments.’

Prospects of the Coalition in Power in the Future

Ahead of him awaits the difficult task of forming a fractured Diet and working across ideological differences within his coalition. Sizable amounts of diplomatic skill will be called upon to balance the distinct priorities of the LDP and Komeito.’ After all, there’s an internal agenda to which attention must be paid; international relationships are immensely complex. Analysts point out that his administration will likely focus on populist policies and put off tougher reforms.

The new government must be careful not to anger its coalition partner, and further fragmentation of the support base is unnecessary. ‘If this coalition works, it can be an opportunity for more balanced policy-making. However, if the internal divisions deepen, it can lead to political stalemate, which in turn may block the much-needed advancement on crucial issues and may weaken Japan’s position domestically and internationally.’

Summary

Loss of the majority in parliament presents an uphill task for Japan’s ruling party and the country’s new Prime Minister. In the face of huge critical challenges on the two key fronts of economy and security, the Komeito-led coalition will become critical to the future direction of the Japanese government. However little-known the course will be, leadership has always shaped how challenges can be turned around and set a given country on track again.