Britain is “on the threshold” of a sharp increase in assassination attempts, sabotage, and other Russia- and Iran-backed crimes with which MI5’s director general says they hire criminals to do dirty work. But until now, MI5 and the police have thwarted 20 potentially deadly plots. If conflicts in the Middle East continue to worsen, including between Israel and Iran, then Britain could face even more danger.

So far, most of the threats have been against Iranians in the UK who are against their government. But with rising tensions in the Middle East, MI5 fears Iranian aggression toward the UK might increase. “Other tensions in the region – for example, between Israel and Iranian-backed groups Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen – may also unleash attacks on British soil.”.

The MI5 reports that probes into threats by hostile states have risen by 48% in the past year. Iran is followed by Russia and China on this list, as per the MI5. The cases of plots sponsored by Iran have risen dramatically since the death of Mahsa Amini in Iranian police custody in 2022.

 For years, Iran-backed plots have been surfacing in the UK. From January 2022 till date, MI5 and the police have dealt with 20 such cases, a one-third increase from the previously known cases.

The other significant threat is Russia, using arson and sabotage to cause chaos in the UK and Europe. Much of the time, Russia and Iran hire criminals ranging from drug traffickers to petty thieves to do the job. 

For instance, one Chechen man was jailed for spying on a dissident Iranian broadcaster in London, while a number of suspects linked to Russia are awaiting trial for planning attacks on Ukrainian-owned businesses in the UK.

Other European countries, too, have had similar plots: Germany arrested those who were spying on or preparing to make attacks for Russia, and Sweden accused Iran of using criminal networks to target Israeli and Jewish interests.

Whereas the point of emphasis was China’s aggressive behaviour, MI5 insists that the UK-China economic relationship is meaningful and that it should be maintained while risks are managed.

The UK’s official terror threat level is “substantial”, which means an attack is likely. Since 2017, MI5 and the police have disrupted 43 late-stage plots that would have caused numerous deaths. Most of them originated from Islamic extremist ideology, a handful from far-right extremism. 

In fact, however, MI5 warns that these labels don’t do justice to the broad umbrella of beliefs and ideologies concerned, many of which remain fueled by online hate and disinformation. Alarmingly, 13% of MI5’s terror investigations now involve people under 18.

There’s also fear about the reappearance of IS, though the so-called caliphate it declared in Iraq and Syria has collapsed. IS was primarily suppressed in recent years, but it has kept trying to export terrorism, and its successful brutal attack in March on a Moscow concert hall, killing over 140, proves its capability.

MI5 has previously faced criticism for failing to halt fatal attacks. Its case is now even more complicated – with a mix of terrorist threats and state-backed plots at attempted assassination and sabotage as the war rife in Ukraine casts its shadow over Britain. The director general admitted the agency “has one hell of a job on its hands.”