Only 150,000 to 200,000 voters in the swing states will decide who will be the next US president a year from now: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. Political analyst David Schultz has described them as constituting an infinitesimally small proportionately small group of 0.08 per cent of the country’s nearly 244 million eligible voters, but to whom the power to decide the balance of such a polarised situation would fall.

Ultimately, it will depend on a pretty small percentage of swing voters in a small number of important counties in swing states, said Schultz, professor of political science at Hamline University and author of ‘Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter’. Through these final weeks of the election, what has stayed the same is the steadiness of the electorate, Schultz said, noting that Harris and Trump have been running neck and neck.

Both candidates for the 2024 election campaign took an aggressive and polarised approach, vying for their equal share of swing votes. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump made their final pitches on Monday, ending in Pennsylvania, one of the battleground states that could prove decisive on Election Day.

Of course,” Schultz cautions, voter turnout, especially among voters under 30, will likely be huge, voting in more significant numbers for Harris than they did for Joe Biden or Trump. “These voters may not be fully reflected in current polling, but their turnout could shift the election,” Schultz said. If the female voters, who comprise 54 per cent of the electorate, were to stay active in these critical swing states and remain motivated about voting, that too would be a boon for Harris.

Third-party candidates have complicated an already tight race, and although the contest remains very tight, they could capture enough votes in one or two swing states to influence the election. Schultz explained that even a few thousand votes or voter apathy could swing the results. Candidates like Jill Stein could siphon some of the votes from either party that would presumably have influenced the outcome in critical states, Schultz said.

Michigan is a big swing state with the largest Arab-American population in the US, and Schultz said it could be very much affected by third-party voters. “I don’t think Michigan is going to vote for Trump, but I think some of the disillusioned voters might stay home or vote third party or just not vote at all,” he said.

Another polarising factor in the 2024 elections is international issues. According to Schultz, for example, pressure has been mounting against Harris and the Democratic Party due to antiwar and pro-Palestine movements wanting the administration not to condone military actions by Israel in Gaza. Indeed, such a sentiment would skew the election results.

On Monday, Schultz wrote an article suggesting that the 2024 US presidential election might end with a very close margin. As Election Day approaches, all eyes and hopes are riveted to these critical swing voters who will eventually help form life inside the White House.

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