Overseas American voters hold the key to several crucial battleground states as America votes its way in November 2024. Bob Vallier, a Michigan voter who has spent decades living in Paris, has already voted for the U.S. elections, “What goes on in America affects the rest of the world,” said Vallier, the chairman of the LGBTQ caucus for Democrats Abroad.

The votes of Vallier and millions of other Americans living abroad have the capacity to tilt the scales for contestants in battleground states like Michigan. Recent opinion polls show that the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, and the Republican challenger, Donald Trump, have a strict competition. That is a good sign for the Democratic National Committee, given that 1.6 million U.S. voters living abroad are registered in seven critical battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Overseas voters tend to be Democratic. Last year, three-quarters of users of the Vote From Abroad tool, which is run nonpartisan, reported being Democrats. For the first time, the DNC has devoted $300,000 to Democrats Abroad to boost voter registration and mail-in voting among expats. The organisation runs social media ads asking overseas Americans to send in their ballots, encouraging them to tell their friends to do the same: “Every single vote counts,” Mundy says.

Republican campaign targets expat vote with tax policy.

Donald Trump is also attempting to win over overseas Republicans by promising to do away with double taxation for Americans living abroad. So far, no details have yet emerged regarding his plan. Still, the possible consequence is pretty apparent: it would free U.S. citizens of one of the taxing obligations from paying U.S. taxes on income earned abroad. The obligation involves sometimes a cumbersome procedure.

For a narrow slice of expats, tax reform could become the issue that rises to the top. Zennon Kapron, who lives in Singapore but is registered to vote in New York, also sees the tax plan as potentially significant: “For many Americans abroad, the only consistent interaction with the U.S. government is through the IRS every April.”

Soloman Yue, the head of Republicans Overseas, has propelled targeted tax reform for Americans abroad. He believes that Trump’s plan may indeed hold the punch to swing expat elections, saying, “I already see Democrats Abroad panicking.”

Legal Challenges and Voting Hurdles

The Donald Trump campaign has also turned to litigation to bar overseas ballot tallies. The Republican National Committee filed several lawsuits in states, including Pennsylvania, seeking the use of court authority to invalidate some overseas ballots. That drew protest from Democratic lawmakers, who argued that the state’s litigation could disenfranchise military voters abroad. Judges rejected two similar lawsuits Monday in Michigan and North Carolina that aimed to bar tabulation of overseas votes.

Voting abroad has other unique challenges. Unlike in most countries, voting at an embassy on Election Day is prohibited; instead, voters are allowed to send a mail ballot back to their home state, which creates a hurdle for one’s participation in voting. Just 8% of registered overseas voters used their right to vote in the 2020 presidential election, compared to the 67% voter turnout.

In Paris, an aging attorney, Tanya, works for free, counselling expats on voting regulations they may need to deal with in their state. Situated next to a café, they assist U.S. citizens with voter registration processes and backup ballots. Claudie Le Corre is an American resident of New York who stopped by the stand since she hadn’t received her ballot. “I am worried about the future and one of these populist movements, Donald Trump,” she said.

As the 2024 election approaches, overseas voters may make a difference in one of the most contentious races in United States history.

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