The battle for legitimacy…the Ukrainian president’s options at the end of his presidential term
Zelensky works to restore Ukrainian lands occupied by Russia. According to The Economist magazine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s constitutional status raises questions inside and outside Ukraine, especially with the end of his presidential term on May 20.
While Article 103 of the Ukrainian Constitution stipulates that the president is elected for five years, Article 108 stipulates that the elected president exercises power until a new president is installed.
In contrast, a long-standing law stipulates that elections cannot be held when martial law is in effect, which has been the case in Ukraine since Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Over several months, the war continued at a slow pace, as Russian forces made minor gains at significant human cost, especially in the eastern Donetsk region.
Russia took control of 278 square kilometers between May 9 and May 15 in eastern Ukraine, especially in the Kharkiv region, in its most considerable penetration in a year and a half, according to an analysis conducted by Agence France-Presse based on data from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The magazine comments that those promoting Russian propaganda will see Zelensky as illegitimate after May 20 and will ignore the charade of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s re-election earlier this year.
Although Ukraine knew of Russia’s intentions to launch a summer offensive, it was unsure where Russian forces would be deployed. The latter’s invasion of the border area north of Kharkiv on May 10, however, made the features of the Russian plan clear, according to the researchers.
In contrast, Ukraine’s Western backers and most legal experts insist that Zelensky’s position is no cause for concern.
However, in Kyiv, the Ukrainian president’s opponents are reluctant to consider the situation illegal, especially in light of rumors of senior officials’ resignations and of a coup, although this seems imaginary, according to the magazine.
The Russian-Ukrainian fighting is expected to continue for years, which means martial law may continue as well, and as the war continues, Zelensky’s popularity will be tested further.
The magazine indicates that the president’s popularity is already diminishing. At the same time, some Ukrainians wonder whether a new leader can fight more effectively or find a way to negotiate peace. Zelensky insists that his goal remains to regain all the territory seized by Russia.
From the start of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, until May 15, 2024, Russia seized 65,336 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, representing about 12 percent of Ukraine without counting the lands previously annexed by Russia, such as the Crimean Peninsula, according to Agence France-Presse.
The agency based its calculations on data issued daily by the American Institute for the Study of War. It relies on data published by Moscow and Kyiv and analyzes satellite images.
The Ukrainian government is being criticized for alleged corruption and the centralization of power in the hands of a small circle. According to the magazine, holding elections would, in principle, support the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government, improve accountability, and ensure the preservation of the country’s liberal character.
Zelensky must still address the questions raised by the end of his formal presidential term rather than evade them. He should acknowledge that he will eventually need to hold elections and make plans for organizing them.
The magazine comments that the matter will be complicated, as Russia will prevent voting in the areas it occupies and will bomb polling centers in the areas it does not occupy. However, a country like Ukraine is inevitably capable of finding ways to give its people the right to express their opinions on how they are governed.
