‘Just over a week before Election Day in the United States, polling averages indicate that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a closely contested battle with each other in several key swing states. The battleground states would play a critical role in shaping the outcome of the 2024 presidential election as both contenders compete to secure the presidential office through a good number of 270 electoral votes.’

National Polls Put Harris Ahead of Trump by Nape Margin of 1.8-1.9 Pct

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in national polls by a narrow margin of 1.8 to 1.9 percentage points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s daily election poll tracker. The narrow margin gives the Democratic candidate a slight advantage in the race but leaves a very much smaller margin than what Joe Biden had four years ago, with a 4-point lead over Trump.

The Washington Post published a poll earlier this week that said both Harris and Trump enjoyed the support of 47 percent of registered voters, thus a dead heat. In contrast, another Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Harris leading Trump by 46 percent to 43 percent, which gave her a slim advantage nationally in support.

Why it matters: This is an election decided by the Electoral College, even though Harris seems to have a little edge nationally. ‘Although Harris has a slight lead in the national popular vote, the Electoral College will decide the election. For someone to win the presidency, they must secure at least 270 out of the 538 available electoral votes. These further split among the states by population; most are one party or the other; thus, it all depends on the swing states.’

Although Joe Biden won fairly comfortably in the Electoral College last time (306 to 232), the polls indicate it could be a much closer contest in 2024. Unless the national margin of vote narrows even further, that bodes well for Donald Trump: he might be able to secure enough swing state victories to win the Electoral College even if he is still a little behind in the national popular vote.

Key Contests

The seven key swing states that will likely decide the 2024 election are Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes; North Carolina and Georgia, each with 16 electoral votes; Michigan, with 15 electoral votes; Arizona, with 11; Wisconsin, with 10; and Nevada, with 6. Together, these states would determine 93 critical electoral votes.

Polling averages recently have Harris and Trump within the margin of error in all seven swing states. The race is marginally Trump’s in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina while marginally Harris’s in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Pennsylvania is virtually even, with Trump a little ahead. Such razor-thin margins represent just how easily the outcome could go one way or the other on Election Day.

A Replay of 2016?

The polling landscape facing us opens the possibility of a replay of 2016: Trump wins the presidency but loses the national popular vote, just as he did in 2016. Among the most memorable features of the 2016 campaign was how polls underestimated support for Trump in the swing states, which ultimately proved decisive.

Indeed, not only did Georgia and Arizona, two of the country’s most traditional Republican states, flip to the Democratic side in the 2020 election for the first time in decades, with both being squeak-by wins. This year, in 2024, Trump is in both states ahead, which might signal some likely battlegrounds returning to his column.

Polling Accuracy and Concerns

‘Polling sheds light on the election results, but yet remains sceptical about the accuracy. In both the presidential elections in 2016 and 2020, the support for Trump and other Republican candidates was underestimated.’ More recently, in the 2022 midterm elections, the pollsters again failed to read voter sentiments and miscalculated the Democratic support, leading to the incorrect conclusion that a Republican would win.

After 2016, there have been changes in the polling methods. However, with a close margin of victory in battleground states, it is still hard to assess appropriately. “Pollsters employ several techniques–phone, online, in-person, and even social media and other forms of electronic surveys. Yet discrepancies in methodology can provide vastly different levels of accuracy.” 

Conclusion: A Close Race to the Finish

‘The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is taking a more intense face as Election Day draws near, particularly in some key swing states.’ Though Harris leads very slimly in national polls, the narrow margins in the battleground states say that it still cannot be certain who will win.’ .’During the last weeks of this campaign, the candidate may determine who will make the most momentum and garner enough electoral votes to win the presidency. The candidates, once again, will focus on swing states, where a small shift in the voter’s mind can prove to be the difference in this closely contested race.’