The return to the presidency of Donald Trump may spell disaster for Palestinians: his first term was marked by the realization of meaningful changes that consolidated Israel’s regional hegemony: he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, transferred the US embassy there, shut down the office of the Palestinian Liberation Organization in Washington, and backdated support for the annexation move by Israel. Again, through input from his son-in-law Jared Kushner, the Trump administration developed the Abraham Accords that would sideline Palestine’s interests in the name of strengthening Gulf-Israel trade relations. This strategic alignment essentially buried hopes for Palestinian self-determination. With Republicans poised to control Congress, Trump’s agenda could go unchecked and further empower Israel’s expansionist goals.

Trump’s previous administration shifted US policy toward an alliance with the Zionist religious right, an alliance that amplified voices like David Friedman, the former ambassador to Israel. Friedman is an outspoken advocate for the settler movement and has recently argued for the “One Jewish State” solution, which envisions Israeli control from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean. Such a policy would effectively dismiss Palestinian statehood, permanently reshaping the region and eliminating any credible two-state solution. It could include, with likely support from Trump, also annexation of Area C in the West Bank and forced reorganization of the Palestinian territories.

The attack by Hamas in October 2023 brought the Palestinian cause back into the center of international interest. It disrupted the narrative of the Abraham Accords that had ignored the grievances of Palestinians. However, this reelection of Trump can encourage the side of Israel. It may decide on total victory over Palestinian territories and achieve disastrous results for the territory. Hard-liners in Israel, such as politicians like Itamar Ben Gvir-a, a far-right politician, feel a signal from Washington that now is the time to pressure border-clearing in Lebanon, the tightening of control over Gaza, and even relocating populations.

For Palestinians, Trump’s victory and the likely return to hardline policies mark the end of any hope for negotiations. Years of failed diplomacy have left younger generations increasingly supportive of resistance. The Biden administration did little to reverse Trump-era decisions, leaving a Democratic legacy that also dismissed Palestinian sovereignty. Trump’s policies may accelerate the shift in Palestinian strategy from political negotiation to resistance, further destabilizing the region and deepening divides.

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For Israel, the threat of another Trump presidency serves as a reason to cheer on its right-wing and religious groups. People such as Ben Gvir openly celebrate Trump’s re-election as an opportunity to finally nail down control over disputed territories without having to fear the United States holding it up. However, this will have broad and catastrophic effects. This aggressive approach risks pushing into a regional confrontation with alarm already emanating from Jordan and Lebanon over expulsions and territorial invasions. As Trump considers again taking up the mantle, he faces two fraught options: enabling Israel’s “total victory,” which risks further chaos in the Middle East, or reining in Israeli ambitions at the cost of provoking opposition from within. No matter which, his policies look likely to fan a fire already blazing in a brewing crisis.